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| [unable to retrieve full-text content]Optimista vagy morbid, nézőpont kérdése, de szakmailag hivatalos info, csak épp nem magyarországi. Előrejelzés-jóslat a COVID-19-ről: Szerintük júliusra már lecseng Mo.-n a járvány. A halottak számában április 23-ra jósolják a csúcspontot átlagosan 15 halottal. (12 nappal vagyunk előtte.) A szélsőérték-grafikon szerint április 19-20-án lehet min 4, max. 41 halott. Tehát a csúcspont április 19-23. A kórházi eszközök szükséglete az április 21-i csúcsponton: Hungary 10 days until peak resource use on April 21, 2020 Resources needed for COVID-19 patients on peak date All beds needed 586 beds All beds available 18,632 beds Bed Shortage 0 beds ICU beds needed 131 beds ICU beds available 440 beds ICU Bed Shortage 0 beds Invasive ventilators needed 115 ventilators Szerintük Mo.-n június első felében a halottak száma már 0-ra csökken a jelenlegi intézkedések fenntartása mellett. Június közepére jósolnak össz. átlagosan 413 halottat, min 234, max. 810 halottat. Az előrejelzés-jóslatuk szerint augusztus első felére lecseng a járvány első hulláma Európában. A második hullámról még nem jósolnak semmit. Az én véleményem az, hogy alábecsültek ezek a számok, és ha 2000 alatt megússzuk a halottak számát, már jó. "New COVID-19 forecasts for Europe: Italy & Spain have passed the peak of their epidemics; UK, early in its epidemic, faces a fast-mounting death toll http://www.healthdata.org/n... Publication date: April 6, 2020 151,000 Europeans and UK Residents Projected to Die in 'First Wave' of Pandemic Significant Shortage Projected for Hospital Beds, ICU Beds, and Ventilators 'Unequivocally evident that social distancing can help control the trajectory of the pandemic' SEATTLE – (April 7, 2020) New COVID-19 estimates find that, among European nations, the peak daily death rate from the pandemic will occur during the third week of April, with the pandemic spreading from Southern Europe. The new forecasts, released today by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington's School of Medicine, find that approximately 151,680 people will die during what researchers are calling the "first wave" of the pandemic. By comparison, the US is expected to face 81,766 deaths, according to forecasts released on Sunday by IHME. "We are expecting a foreboding few weeks for people in many parts of Europe," said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray. "It seems likely the number of deaths will exceed our projections for the United States." This is despite the declines in deaths that are now occurring in Italy and Spain. The death toll in many countries is compounded by demand for hospital resources well in excess of what is available. For example, peak demand in the UK is expected to total 102,794 hospital beds needed compared to 17,765 available, 24,544 ICU beds compared to 799 ICU beds available, and 20,862 ventilators needed (with data currently unavailable on ventilators available). Today's announcement on Europe finds that most regions of Italy and Spain have passed their peaks in the number of deaths, while other nations are approaching their peaks and still others facing peak mortality later in April. Countries that are about to peak or are quickly approaching peak in this wave of the epidemic include the Netherlands, Ireland, Austria, and Luxembourg. The Czech Republic and Romania are midway through their expected trajectories. Other nations including the United Kingdom, Germany, Norway, and Greece are still early in their trajectories and face fast-rising death tolls through their peaks in the second and third weeks of April. "It is unequivocally evident that social distancing can, when well implemented and maintained, control the epidemic, leading to declining death rates," Murray said. "Those nations hit hard early on implemented social distancing orders and may have the worst behind them as they are seeing important progress in reducing their death rates. Each nation's trajectory will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax other precautions." Murray cautioned that easing these precautions too soon during "the first wave" of the pandemic could lead to new rounds of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. He defines the end of this "wave" as a ratio of 0.3 deaths per 1 million people. IHME's projections assume that social distancing measures, if not currently implemented, will be implemented within one week. "To decrease the risk of a second wave in places where the first wave is controlled by robust social distancing, governments would need to consider mass testing, contact tracing, and quarantines for those infected until a vaccination is available, mass produced, and distributed widely," Murray said. IHME started making projections of the pandemic's impact in the United States state-by-state on March 26. Today's announcement is the first set of predictions for European nations and is based on modeling the peak in death rates and hospital usage in Wuhan City in China, where the virus was first discovered, as well as data from seven European locations that have peaked, including Madrid, Spain; Castile-La Mancha, Spain; Tuscany, Italy; Emilia-Romagna, Italy; Liguria, Italy; Piedmont, Italy; and Lombardy, Italy. Of these eight locations that have reached the peak regarding daily deaths, only one, Wuhan, has currently brought new cases to nearly zero. The analysis is based on an extensive range of information and data sources, including: Local governments, national governments, and the World Health Organization Government declarations on implementation of social distancing policies Age-specific death rate data from China, Italy, South Korea, and the US Here are some country-specific findings from IHME's latest forecasting: ITALY: The first wave of the pandemic has peaked in Italy, and peak resource use for ICU beds and ventilators was on March 28. Deaths are forecast to peak in Calabria on April 7, and in Puglia on April 16. On April 6, 699 daily deaths were projected, with only three provinces (Lombardy, Piedmont, and Emilia-Romagna) seeing more than 50 deaths daily. SPAIN: Almost all regions of Spain are at or past the peak. Excess demand for ICU beds is particularly high in Spain compared to many other countries in Europe. The forecasts predict 19,209 total deaths from COVID-19 in Spain by August 4. PORTUGAL: Deaths in Portugal peaked on April 3 with an estimated 37 deaths. The model shows that while Portugal did not have a total bed shortage, it did not have enough ICU beds to meet demand, with the shortage peaking at 118 ICU beds on April 3. The model predicts 471 total deaths in the country by August 4. FRANCE: The model shows that France is just passing the peak and will have a total of 15,058 deaths by August 4. The country is expected to have enough total beds to meet demand, but a shortage of 4,330 ICU beds. The forecasts predict 6,091 ICU beds will be needed for COVID-19 patients in France. GERMANY: Deaths in Germany are forecast to peak in the third week of April, with an estimated 377 deaths on April 19. The model shows that Germany will have enough beds and ICU beds to meet demand, with the required number of total beds peaking at 12,222 on April 14, and predicts 8,802 total deaths in the country by August 4. SWEDEN: Deaths in Sweden are forecast to peak the last week of April, with an estimated 134 deaths on April 24. The model shows that Sweden will not have enough beds and ICU beds to meet demand, with the shortage peaking at 1,090 ICU beds on April 25, and predicts 4,182 total deaths in the country by August 4. UK: Deaths in the UK are forecast to peak the third week of April, with an estimated 2,932 deaths on April 17. The model shows that the UK will not have enough beds and ICU beds to meet demand, with the shortage peaking at 23,745 ICU beds on April 17, and predicts 66,314 total deaths in the country by August 4." http://disq.us/url?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.healthdata.org%2Fnews-release%2Fnew-covid-19-forecasts-europe-italy-spain-have-passed-peak-their-epidemics-uk-early-its%3AIJI0aF4NHNC_fL5_GXsA8zIg3VE&cuid=3496733 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Please try one of the following options: If you typed the URL into your browser's address bar, check that it is spelled correctly. Search our site by keyword or content t... |
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2020. április 11., szombat
FB-RSS feed for Kiss Balázs: Optimista vagy morbid, nézőpont kérdése, de szakmailag hivatalos info, csak épp nem magyarországi.Előrejelzés-jóslat a COVID-19-ről:Szerintük júliusra már lecseng Mo.-n a
